Kuwait minus 16.7%. Qatar minus 15.6%. Bahrain minus 11.3%.

The IMF's new 2026 forecasts. The six Gulf economies together shrink 4.8%, about the same hit as Covid. Last year they grew 4.5%.

Oil and gas output of the Gulf exporters hit by the war fell from 33 million barrels a day in February to about 19 million in May. Qatar's output dropped as much as 86%.

UAE minus 3.9%. Saudi minus 3.3%. Only Oman grows, plus 4.1%. Iraq, outside the GCC, around minus 16%.

Jihad Azour calls it a "severe shock" and pencils in a 9.1% rebound for 2027. Only if the fighting ends and Hormuz reopens early next year.

Eight months into a war they didn't start. And Washington is already drawing up round three.